Approach
Read everything, model it ourselves, act like owners.
We look for listed companies whose situation is changing faster than the market’s understanding of it, and we hold them as owners. The work is slow and specific. Six principles guide it.
Principles
Six principles
Primary sources only
Conclusions come from filings, presentations and verified data, never from consensus or external price targets.
First-principles models
Every view is backed by a bottom-up model with explicit bear, base and bull cases.
Model what management will actually do
Base cases follow stated capital-allocation behaviour, not the theoretically ideal path.
Governance matters
Board composition, insider ownership and incentives are weighed as heavily as the numbers.
Engaged ownership
Constructive dialogue with boards and shareholders, in public and on the record.
Intellectual honesty
Risks and the bear case get as much space as the upside.
Focus
Where we look
- Small and micro-capsListed companies that few analysts follow closely, where careful reading of the filings still matters.
- Transformations and strategic pivotsBusinesses changing what they do, how they are financed or who runs them.
- Special situationsRestructurings, asset sales, litigation and spin-offs, where outcomes depend on specific events.
- Regulatory and technology shiftsCompanies whose economics are being reset by a change in rules or technology.
Our scope is global, with a natural edge in Europe.
Process
How we assess a company
Read the record
Annual and interim reports, prospectuses, regulatory filings, results presentations and call transcripts, going back several years.
Build the model
A bottom-up model of the business with bear, base and bull cases, each tied to stated assumptions that can be checked.
Assess governance
Who sits on the board, who owns what, how management is paid and how it has allocated capital before.
Decide as owners
We take a stake only when the bear case is survivable and the governance is one we can work with. Where we publish, we disclose our position and set out the risks in full.
Follow through
We stay in contact with the company, revisit the work after results and material events, and change our view when the facts change.